To which most of us are lucky.
[EDIT] Paul sent me some more text that can be found in the extended reading.
My buddy from college, Paul Pukurdpol, is in Thailand. In light of the this afternoons events… he sent the following in an email to those following his world travelings:
Hello friends and loved ones!
As some of you may have discovered, Thailand is in the midsts of a
military coup ousting the current Prime Minister, Thakin. My dad, my
aunt, and I were having dinner downtown by the Royal Palace and we
went to have dessert next to Bangkok’s city hall. As we were driving
out of down town, humvees and army troops moved into the city, but we
didn’t think anything of it until my Uncle Todd’s phone began ringing
constantly with rumors of a coup. All of the Thai TV stations were
taken over by the military, lead by the head of the Army (a Muslim,
interestingly), and have only been playing patriotic videos of the
king since then. An important aspect of Thai society is that EVERYONE
loves the King, and I mean EVERYONE (it’s really a cultural
phenomenon), so right now both sides - Thaksin and the Army - are
claiming to be supported by the king.
The first thing my dad and I did after hearing about the coup was to
head to an ATM and pull out a veritable war chest of cash. It seems
that we did it just in time because it sounds like banks will be
freezing further transactions. Looking at the crash in the Baht that
is going to follow this, I’m lamenting that my dollar could have been
stretched farther if I would have waited until tomorrow to convert
them. But no matter how you spin it, this is going to be a huge blow
to Thailand’s enconomy and to the country as a democracy. It makes me
very sad, because the damage done to 15 years of democratic growth
will take years to fix.
The military has placed tanks at the government offices across the
street from where I had dinner. They have ordered all other soldiers
to go back to their barraks, suggesting that the coup is being lead by
a small part of the military. Certainly, there are soldiers loyal to
Thaksin, but it seems as though they’ve been caught unprepared. The
chances for blood shed seem very minimal right now, and in fact I am
planning on going back downtown tomorrow morning if it’s possible
since my passport and dollars are all at my downtown hotel. I also
want to get my camera and, if I can, I will take some pictures. I
should really thank Cale right now for lending me a zoom lens, since
it will let me keep a safe distance (assuming I get the opportunity to
take any pictures at all!)
My father and I are now camped at my Uncle Todd’s house which is in
the suburbs, however CNN and the BBC have been taken off of the air,
so most people don’t know the details of what is going on. Thankfully
I have been able to get news about what is happening downtown through
blogs and online radio.The controversy that lead up this this coup stems from a power
struggle between the current (or I guess it’s now former) Prime
Now for my political commentary (This is still Paul):
It has been fifteen years since the last military coup, and that ended
when the King made the general responsible bow down before him and
give power back to the democratic government in 1992. This gives you
an idea of how powerful the King is, and the King’s power is derrived
almost exclusively from his popularity with ordinary Thais since the
monarchy was stripped of its executive powers in the 1932 revolution.
In 1997, Thailand voters approved a new, powerfully democratic
constitution that made Thailand the brightest star among emerging
democracies in Asia. I’m a big fan of it since it tried to reduce the
corruption that plages the Thai government.
Minister Taksin, who is one of the richest men in Thailand, and the
most powerful Army commander. Taksin was went to the national police
academy and has tried to wrestle the police/miltiary into his camp by
putting his old friends from the academy into powerful positions. Of
course, the old guard has been resisting this. Pit the rich prime
minister against the old army guy, and you got the perfect makings of
a coup.
Adding to the controversy is the fact that Thaksin keeps winning
elections because he basically buys votes. He originally won by
promising every village in Thailand 1 million baht cash to build
whatever they wanted. He created his own party using his personal
wealth, and that party is now a beheamoth in Thai politics and is held
together only by money and patronage - they do NOT have a common
ideological platform. To sustain this system, Thaksin recently sold
off the company that made him rich (the Shin company, which sounds
like an evil corporation strait out of the Japanese Final Fantasy
series), and by cashing out made an ENORMOUS amount of money while in
office.
Add in a failed election in April, and basically things are a mess.
People in Bangkok do not support Thaksin nearly as much as people in
the provinces do, and he’s been under fire to resign for weeks.
Timing the coup to coincide with the UN summit, which puts Thaksin in
NY, means that Thaksin will not be able to realistically contest this
coup. What’s to come? Here are my preliminary predictions:
1.) The baht will crash tomorrow.
2.) The markets will tank tomorrow, but will recover in a couple of weeks.
3.) I think that the military will hold elections next year since the
King will not tolerate a permenant military government.
4.) Thailand will be a democracy again, but with a shakier new constitution.
5.) Tourism will take a small dip since words like “coup” sound scary,
but by the next high season (December), things will be back to normal.
For anyone whose been considering visiting Thailand, I would continue
to plan on coming. Tourism is the lifeblood of the post Asian
Financial Crisis economy and the Thai government has always bent over
backwards for tourists, including the military. The coup should
proceed bloodlessly since Taksin can’t really fight back from NY
effectively, and the King is a powerful moderating force. There are
hunderds of thousands of foreigners in Thailand right now, and besides
the small hiccup caused by today being declared a holiday, economic
activity should begin again in earnest on Thursday.
I may have some more predictions to come, but let’s start with that.
Alas, I must go to sleep so that I can wake up early for tomorrow’s
adventures, but rest assured that I am well and that the world is an
interesting place to live in.
Much love,
Paul
Filed by ryanroth at September 19th, 2006 under Life